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Economic Reports

A series of reports on tobacco taxation funded by the Bloomberg Philanthropies as part of the Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use.

How Eliminating the Global Illicit Cigarette Trade Would Increase Tax Revenue and Save Lives
If the global illicit trade were eliminated, governments would gain at least $31 billion, and from 2030 onwards would save over 160,000 lives a year.
Luk Joossens,Framework Convention Alliance, Brussels, Belgium
Hana Ross, International Tobacco Control Research, American Cancer Society, USA
David Merriman, Institute of Government and Public Affairs and Department of Public Administration, University of Illinois, Chicago, USA
Martin Raw, UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies, Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK

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Economics of Tobacco Taxation in Ukraine
If tax represents 70 percent of the retail price, the number of smokers would decline by almost 2 million, and about 1 million tobacco-related deaths would be avoided. At the same time, the government would collect an additional UAH 5.8 billion (US$ 1.2 billion) in excise tax revenue per year.
Hana Zarubova Ross, PhD,
Samina Shariff, MPH, Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
Anna Gilmore, PhD
University of Bath & European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK


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Economics of Tobacco Taxation in Russia
If Russia chooses to reach the level where tobacco tax represents 70 percent of the retail price, up to 2.7 million tobacco-related deaths among the Russian population can be avoided. Furthermore, the government would collect an additional RUB 153 billion (US$ 6 billion) in excise tax revenue per year
Hana Zarubova Ross, PhD, Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
Samina Shariff, MPH, Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
Anna Gilmore, PhD
University of Bath & European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

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Tobacco Taxation and Its Potential Impact in China
An increase in the specific excise tax of RMB 1 on a pack of cigarettes would increase government revenue by RMB 64.9 billion (US$ 7.9 billion), save 3.4 million lives, reduce medical costs by RMB 2.68 billion (US$ 325 million) and generate a productivity gain of RMB 9.92 billion (US$ 1.2 billion) for the Chinese economy.
Teh-wei Hu, Professor Emeritus of Health Economics, University of California, Berkeley
Zhengzhong Mao, Professor and Chair, Department of Health Economics, Sichuan University
Jian Shi, Associate Director, Research Institute of Taxation Science, State Administration of Taxation, Beijing
Wendong Chen, Research Associate, Taxation Branch Institute, State Administration of Taxation, Beijing

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An Analysis of Cigarette Affordability
Over the past decade a clear dichotomy has developed between developed and developing
countries. Cigarettes are becoming less affordable in developed countries and much more affordable in developing countries.
Evan Blecher, International Tobacco Control Research, American Cancer Society
Corné van Walbeek, School of Economics, University of Cape Town

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Tobacco Economics in Indonesia
Implementing the maximum legally allowable tobacco tax rates could prevent between 1.7 and 4.0 million tobacco-related deaths among smokers and generate additional revenues of US$ 3.2 to 6.5 billion. Doubling the tobacco tax could increase employment by more than one quarter of a million jobs.
Sarah Barber, University of California, Berkeley
Abdillah Ahsan, Demographic Institute, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia
Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo, Demographic Institute Faculty, of Economics, University of Indonesia
Diahhadi Setyonaluri, Demographic Institute Faculty, of Economics, University of Indonesia

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India: The Tax Treatment of Bidis
Bidis are under-taxed compared to cigarettes, taking into account the health risks of each, and therefore, on health grounds, a strong case can be made for increasing the excise burden on bidis.
Emil M. Sunley, former Assistant Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, 1992-2006

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A Modern Economic View of Tobacco Taxation
Governments can raise significant revenue through cigarette taxes without placing a large net burden on the poor. Indeed, for most parameter values our calculations suggest that tobacco taxes are progressive.
Jonathan Gruber, Massachuetts Institute of Technology
Botond, Küszegi, University of California, Berkeley

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The Economics of Tobacco and Tobacco Taxation in Turkey
Raising the specific tax to 3.10 TL per pack and the ad valorem tax to 65% will lead 0.9 million current smokers to quit and prevent 0.7 million young people from initiating smoking, preventing 0.5 illion premature deaths among Turkey’s population. Further, it would generate an additional 4.1 illion TL in tax revenue.

Ayda Yürekli, World Health Organization, Geneva
Murat Elibol, Ministry of Finance, Ankara
Altan Cabuk, Çukurova University, Adana
Sinan Fikret Erk, Çukurova University, Adana
Zeynep Önder, Bilkent University, Ankara
Nejat Erk, Çukurova University, Adana
Mahir Fisunoglu, Çukurova University, Adana
Frank J. Chaloupka, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago

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